In-Depth Review: After ChiNext Dropped Over 1% and Rebounded, Who Will Be Tomorrow’s A-Share Leader?

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During the market’s repair phase after consecutive pullbacks, today’s long-absent leading sector—humanoid robots—backed by strong policy and industry synergy logic, stands the greatest chance of taking over as tomorrow’s A-share leader.

Today’s A-share market staged a V-shaped reversal, with the ChiNext Index falling over 1% intraday before stubbornly turning positive. Although turnover shrank, the bottom-and-rebound pattern injected a touch of warmth into the market.

Notably, the humanoid robot concept has already demonstrated powerful explosive strength.

• Year-to-date, 110 concept stocks have averaged a gain of 67.63%.
• Among them, Shenhao Technology’s cumulative gain has exceeded 700%.
• Another 18 stocks have doubled from their year-end levels.

Key Takeaways

• The humanoid robot sector has the potential to become the market leader due to policy support and technological progress.
• The market experienced a low-volume rebound, indicating reduced selling pressure, but more capital inflow is needed to confirm an uptrend.
• Investors can focus on tech growth stocks such as co-packaged optics and commercial aerospace, which offer significant development space.
• High-dividend state-owned enterprises are a stable choice, providing defensiveness during market volatility.
• When investing, control position size, select companies with technological advantages or clear business models, and avoid blindly chasing highs.

Today’s A-Share Market: V-Shaped Reversal and Capital Game

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Today’s A-share market staged a thrilling V-shaped reversal. The market continued its adjustment in the morning session, but bargain-hunting capital actively entered in the afternoon, ultimately pushing major indices to close in the green. This reflects intense long-short battles and leaves important clues for the future direction.

Full-Day Market Review

Looking back at the day, market sentiment rapidly switched between pessimism and optimism. After the open, panic spread, with over 3,700 stocks falling at one point. The ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index, representing growth, both dropped over 1% intraday, while the Shanghai Composite probed lower, forming two consecutive negative days on the daily chart and losing the key 10-day moving average.

Key Data Overview:

• Total Turnover: 1.59 trillion CNY
• Turnover Change: 280.5 billion CNY less than the previous trading day
• Market Performance: Afternoon bottom-and-rebound, major indices closed positive

However, the situation changed dramatically in the afternoon. As some heavyweight stocks stabilized, bargain-hunting capital surged in, driving indices to oscillate higher. The ChiNext Index turned positive first, eventually leading the overall A-share market to form a deep V pattern, showing strong underlying support.

Interpreting the Low-Volume Rebound Signal

The most notable feature of this rebound is the “low volume.” A sharp drop in turnover usually conveys several important signals:

• Reduced Selling Pressure: After consecutive adjustments, downward momentum has weakened, and active selling has decreased.
• Cautious Buying: Turnover failed to expand effectively, indicating incremental capital is still on the sidelines with limited willingness to chase.
• Stabilization Signal: On a technical level, a low-volume halt to the decline is one of the signals of a short-term bottom, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears.

Overall, this low-volume rebound can be viewed as the market’s “self-repair,” temporarily easing continuous downward pressure. However, confirming a reversal in the A-share market still requires follow-up volume expansion to further validate.

Sector Highlights: Coal and Commercial Aerospace Outperformed Against the Trend

Amid sharp index swings, sector hotspots remained clear. The high-dividend coal sector, as a representative, demonstrated strong defensiveness and rose against the weak market. At the same time, tech themes like commercial aerospace also attracted capital attention, with pockets of profit effects persisting. This shows that in a stock-capital game environment, funds are switching between high and low—some flowing into defensive sectors for safety, others searching for growth directions with new catalysts.

Lead Prediction: Humanoid Robot Sector Makes a King’s Return

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On today’s market, the sudden rise of the humanoid robot sector was undoubtedly the most striking highlight in a weak market. When the market lacked a clear main line, this long-absent tech theme, with its powerful sector effect and clear industry logic, demonstrated huge potential to become tomorrow’s leading pioneer. This is not accidental speculation—behind it lies strong driving force from policy and industry synergy.

Driving Logic: Policy Tailwinds and AI Empowerment

The humanoid robot industry stands at a historic starting point, with policy “spring winds” and technological “empowerment” forming a powerful combination.

First, national-level strategic support has paved the way for industry development. Top-level design has clearly established its important position, and a series of supportive policies are accelerating implementation.

Key Points of National Policy Support 💡

• Strategic Positioning: The NDRC has listed the robotics industry as one of the new growth engines in future economic plans.
• Market Environment: Plans to accelerate the establishment of market entry and exit mechanisms to promote fair competition.
• Technology Breakthroughs: The government will strongly support core technology R&D to overcome industry bottlenecks.
• Industry Collaboration: Promote nationwide integration and sharing of technology and industrial resources to accelerate commercialization of humanoid robots.

Second, breakthroughs in Embodied AI are giving robots an “intelligent brain.” Tech giants led by NVIDIA already view embodied AI as a trillion-dollar opportunity, enabling machines to perceive, learn, and interact with the physical world. This has greatly reduced previous technical barriers to humanoid robot development. Although robots still face a “translation problem” when learning physical tasks from video data—namely, the challenge of data acquisition—industry experts believe this issue is not insurmountable. Through deep cooperation with industry partners and collecting intelligent data in specific business scenarios, this bottleneck is expected to be broken.

Optimistic predictions from industry leaders like Tesla CEO Elon Musk and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang have further ignited market imagination. They predict that within the next five years, humanoid robots will “walk everywhere” thanks to breakthroughs in perception and interaction, with manufacturing becoming the first sector for large-scale application.

Core Directions: Re-Discovery of Supply Chain Value

The enormous market space is the core foundation for revaluing the humanoid robot sector. According to authoritative industry reports, China’s humanoid robot market is poised for explosive growth.

• By 2026, China’s market size is expected to reach 10.471 billion CNY.
• By 2029, the market size is projected to surge to 75 billion CNY, accounting for 32.7% of the global market.
• Looking ahead to 2035, China’s market size could reach an astonishing 300 billion CNY.

Against such a vast backdrop, every link in the supply chain harbors tremendous investment opportunities. Investors should focus on the following two directions:

1. Upstream Core Components: These are the foundation for achieving high-precision, high-dynamic motion in humanoid robots and the key area for domestic substitution. High technical barriers mean large profit margins.

2. Downstream Complete Machine Manufacturing: Chinese companies have already demonstrated strong competitiveness in complete machine manufacturing. Morgan Stanley’s report shows that over half of the world’s top listed humanoid robot companies are from China. Since 2022, China has also led globally in the number of humanoid robots released. These companies directly face application scenarios and are expected to be the first to realize commercial value.

Opportunities and Risks: Seize the Rhythm and Beware of Divergence

The humanoid robot sector is undoubtedly one of the most growth-oriented tracks in the next decade, but the investment road is not smooth. While seizing opportunities, investors must clearly recognize potential risks.

Opportunities: Trillion-level market space is vast, policy support is unprecedented, technological breakthroughs are imminent, and commercialization is expected to accelerate.

Risks:

• Technological Uncertainty: Core technology R&D may face unforeseen challenges, and commercialization progress may fall short of expectations.
• High Investment Risk: Companies require massive upfront R&D and production investment with high capital demands, making short-term profitability difficult.
• Intensifying Market Competition: As the track heats up, competition from both domestic and international players will intensify, potentially impacting profit margins.
• Valuation Fluctuation Risk: As an emerging theme, related stocks are easily affected by market sentiment, with high volatility and risk of overvaluation.

Therefore, for investments in the humanoid robot sector, a “buy on dips, enter in batches” strategy is recommended. Focus on leading companies with technological barriers in core components or deep binding with downstream application scenarios in complete machine manufacturing. Avoid blindly chasing highs and beware of performance and price divergence within the sector.

Rotation Opportunities: Who Will Take Over Between Co-Packaged Optics and Commercial Aerospace?

While humanoid robots attract market attention, two other tech growth lines—co-packaged optics and commercial aerospace—also show strong rotation potential. They represent AI computing infrastructure and cutting-edge technology exploration, respectively, and are expected to resonate with humanoid robots in subsequent market moves, becoming key forces to drive the market.

Co-Packaged Optics: Continued High Prosperity Under AI Computing Demand

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence has placed unprecedented demands on data transmission rates within data centers. Co-packaged optics technology, as a key solution for reducing power consumption and improving transmission efficiency, is seeing sustained industry prosperity. China, with its massive investment in AI infrastructure, has taken a dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region.

Market Growth Forecast 📈

• Global Market: Expected to grow from $98.42 million in 2025 to $1.16 billion in 2034, with a CAGR of 31.67%.
• China Market: Projected to grow rapidly from $12.18 million in 2024 to $17.72 million in 2025.

The huge market space has attracted numerous tech giants to deploy, and the industry is moving from concept to performance realization. For investors, the high prosperity of the co-packaged optics sector has high certainty and is an indispensable part of the tech growth direction.

Commercial Aerospace: From Concept to Order-Driven Catalysts

If co-packaged optics is the “highway” of the AI era, then commercial aerospace is humanity’s “sea of stars” for future exploration. In recent years, intensive national policies are pushing commercial aerospace from a distant concept to a substantive development stage driven by orders.

Key Policy Support Overview 🚀

Since opening to private investment in 2014, the state has continued to increase support. In 2023, commercial aerospace was officially designated as a “strategic emerging industry,” guiding local governments to actively cultivate it. Over the next decade, the National Space Administration plans to simplify approval processes and open national-level testing facilities, clearing obstacles for industry development.

Strong policy catalysis means related companies will see more procurement and research projects, and commercialization progress is expected to exceed expectations. This brings a clear growth path and huge imagination space to the sector.

Opportunities and Risks: Focus on Performance Realization and Short-Term Volatility

Whether co-packaged optics or commercial aerospace, both belong to high-investment, high-barrier frontier technology fields. Their investment opportunities and risks coexist.

• Opportunities: Both industries are on the eve of explosion, with vast market space, clear policy support, and leading companies expected to enjoy excess growth.
• Risks: Technology integration is complex, upfront R&D investment is huge, and short-term profitability faces challenges. At the same time, as hot themes, related stocks’ valuations are easily affected by sentiment, with significant volatility.

Therefore, when allocating to these two directions, investors should focus on companies with leading technology, secured orders, or clear commercialization paths. Operationally, maintain patience, focus on performance realization, and avoid chasing highs during overheated market sentiment to control short-term volatility risk.

Defensive Choice: The “Catch-Up” Logic of High-Dividend SOEs

While tech growth stocks attract most market attention, smart capital is also seeking stable “safe havens.” Today intraday, the high-dividend state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector led by coal demonstrated strong defensiveness. During market adjustment, such assets, with their unique “catch-up” logic, have become an unignorable defensive choice in the year-end market.

Driving Logic: Year-End Market and Market Value Management Expectations

The appeal of high-dividend SOEs is particularly prominent at year-end, driven by two core forces. First, nearing year-end, some institutional funds need to lock in profits and rotate positions, tending to allocate to low-volatility, stable-dividend defensive assets. Second, expectations for SOE market value management continue to rise, pushing companies to pay more attention to shareholder returns.

Core Logic 🛡️ Regulatory encouragement for central enterprises to strengthen market value management means these companies have stronger motivation to enhance company value through stable dividends, buybacks, etc., providing investors with higher safety margins.

This policy orientation makes the investment logic of high-dividend SOEs more solid, shifting from simply “high dividend” to a dual logic of “high dividend + value re-rating.”

Core Direction: Coal Sector’s Counter-Trend Performance

The coal sector is a typical representative of high-dividend SOE defensive value. The sector not only benefits from heating season demand support but also attracts a large amount of safe-haven capital with its generous dividend policy. Several leading coal companies’ dividend yields are extremely attractive, providing investors with rich cash returns.

From a fundamental perspective, global coal prices remain firm under constrained supply and Asian demand recovery, providing support for coal companies’ profitability.

Opportunities and Risks: Cyclical Fluctuations and Dividend Sustainability

Investing in high-dividend SOEs, especially the coal sector, also requires rational consideration of opportunities and risks.

• Opportunities: In the current market environment, such assets have high safety margins and certain returns, expected to see valuation repair and achieve both “dividend” and “capital gain” income.
• Risks:
  • Cyclical Fluctuations: Coal is a typical cyclical industry, with prosperity closely tied to the macroeconomy. If future economic growth slows, it may affect coal demand and prices, impacting corporate earnings.
  • Dividend Sustainability: High dividends are not set in stone. Investors need to monitor corporate profitability and future capital expenditure plans to judge whether the high-dividend policy can continue.

Overall, high-dividend SOEs are currently an offensive-defensive allocation direction, but investors still need to be wary of potential risks from industry cyclicality.

In summary, the humanoid robot sector has shown the potential to be the leading pioneer. Tech growth directions such as co-packaged optics and commercial aerospace are expected to form rotation support. In the year-end market, high-performing high-dividend assets remain a stable bottom position choice.

Operation Strategy Reference 📝 Facing the current A-share market, investors can moderately tilt positions toward tech growth, controlling overall positions at around 50%, buying on dips without chasing highs.

Finally, it must be emphasized that although signs of the end of short-term adjustment are emerging, a slow bull pattern is not achieved overnight. Investors must remain rational, make decisions based on their own risk preferences, and strictly control drawdown risk.

FAQ

Why is the humanoid robot sector seen as tomorrow’s leading pioneer?

The humanoid robot sector has two core drivers: strong national policy support has clarified the industry direction; meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI) technological breakthroughs have given it an “intelligent brain,” with broad commercialization prospects. The synergy of policy and technology gives it the potential to lead the market.

What does a “low-volume rebound” in the market mean? Is it a reversal signal?

A low-volume rebound is usually not a strong reversal signal, but it conveys positive signs.

• Reduced Selling Pressure: Downward momentum has weakened, and panic selling has decreased.
• Cautious Buying: Incremental capital’s willingness to enter remains weak, and future rises need volume cooperation.

It is more seen as a signal of short-term market stabilization, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears.

Tech growth stocks vs. high-dividend SOEs—how should investors choose?

This depends on the investor’s risk preference and investment goals. Both have advantages and suit different types of capital allocation.

Is the suggested “50% position” suitable for all investors?

Investment Tip 💡 The “50% position” is a general reference based on the current market environment. Investors should dynamically adjust according to their own capital situation, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Investors with lower risk preference can appropriately reduce positions, and vice versa.