Fed Rate Cuts Imminent: How Will USD/CNY Evolve in 2025-2026?
Under Fed rate cut expectations, the USD/CNY exchange rate in 2025 is expected to fluctuate in the 6.95-7.35 range, with the RMB entering a mild appreciation channel. Analysis suggests narrowing US-China interest rate differentials is the main driver, but the PBOC will smooth fluctuations to avoid sharp rises, potentially challenging 6.85 in 2026.