Trump Conviction: Impacts on Stocks and Crypto

On May 30, a New York court jury convicted former U.S. President Trump in the “hush money” case, finding him guilty on all 34 charges. Depending on the case specifics, Trump’s sentence could range from months to decades. For example, in the Manhattan hush money case, each charge could result in a maximum four-year sentence. Conversely, in the classified documents case, each of the 32 charges could carry a maximum 20-year sentence.

It’s challenging to envision that the former president, who recently voiced strong support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, might now face spending his life in prison. Trump’s sentencing is scheduled for July 11, and given his current age of 77, a conviction could mean he spends the rest of his life incarcerated.

Thus, Trump has made history by becoming the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a serious crime.

Will Trump Be Imprisoned? Is There Any Room for Reprieve?

Trump’s conviction on all charges led President Biden to declare victory on Twitter, stating, “No one is above the law.” However, whether Trump will actually serve time depends on the legal penalties associated with the charges and the court’s decisions. Let’s examine the charges he is facing.

Trump currently faces multiple charges, including paying hush money, election interference, and mishandling classified documents. Among these, the most serious are obstruction of justice and violations of the Espionage Act, which theoretically carry very harsh sentences. In the classified documents case alone, he faces 32 charges, each with a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.

Facing the Charges, an Angry Trump Speaks Out:

"This is a disgrace—this trial, orchestrated by a corrupt and conflicted judge, is far from over. We will fight for our Constitution.

It’s all a ploy by Biden and his thugs, which is very dangerous for our country."

If convicted, Trump would have to forget about Bitcoin and the presidency, as he could spend the rest of his life in prison. However, given that these are the lowest-level felonies and non-violent, combined with Trump being a “first-time offender with no prior criminal record,” a “seventy-eight-year-old man,” and a “former President of the United States,” it is highly unlikely that he will actually go to prison.

Interestingly, despite these serious charges, Trump is not only unlikely to be imprisoned but even a conviction would not prevent him from continuing his presidential campaign.

Trump’s Counterattack

In response to the charges, Trump wasn’t about to sit idly by; he reacted with anger, lamentation, and an appeal. He first erupted in anger, hurling insults at the New York judge, the Democratic Party, and President Biden. As he left the courtroom, Trump furiously declared:

This is a tragic day for America and New York. The entire world is watching;

everything is manipulated, the whole system is rigged… We will keep fighting, we will fight to the end, and we will win because our country has gone to hell.

Victory is on November 5th, save America!

Why November 5th? Because that’s Election Day in the U.S. Everyone, vote for me, and let’s save America!

Next, he took to “crying” on social media, where he lamented extensively. He first asserted, “I am a former president; I should be protected by presidential immunity! You can’t treat me this way!”

Trump’s Team Strikes Back, Criticizes Legal System and Launches Counterattacks

Trump’s team was active as well, openly criticizing the judge and prosecutors on various platforms, questioning their fairness. They accused the charges of being politically motivated “witch hunts,” a coordinated attack and smear campaign by Biden and his Democrats against Trump! This strategy aimed to garner public sympathy and support, motivating supporters to donate and support his campaign.

They vehemently asserted Trump’s innocence, insisting he must not be wronged and pledging to continue appealing for justice.

Furthermore, Trump launched an investigation into President Biden’s son, Hunter, focusing on personal scandals, illegal firearm possession, drug use, and tax issues of related companies. “If I’m not clean, are you?” This might mark the first time in U.S. history that a sitting president’s child faces trial.

At present, both sides are primarily probing minor issues, aiming to annoy the other, undermine support, and cause their opponent to lose in the upcoming election.

Impact of Trump’s Conviction

Presidential Campaign

Firstly, regarding the upcoming presidential election, as previously mentioned, even a conviction cannot prevent Trump from running for president. This is based on the U.S. Constitution, which clearly specifies the qualifications for presidential candidates:

According to Article II, Section 1, a presidential candidate must be a natural-born U.S. citizen, at least 35 years old, and have resided in the U.S. for at least 14 years.

The Constitution does not disqualify convicted individuals from running for president.

While this might seem absurd, it’s true. If he wins the election, he will make history again as the first U.S. president with a felony conviction. However, even if Trump were to take office with a conviction, he would not have the power to pardon himself since the case was brought at the state level in New York, not federally. Only the Governor of New York can issue a pardon, and the Governor is typically a Democrat aligned with Biden. Therefore, even as president, Trump is unlikely to be pardoned.

Cryptocurrencies and Meme Coins

Those who are following the current election know that Trump’s team recently began accepting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for donations, and has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. In response, Biden’s team also announced they would accept cryptocurrencies, considering the presidential campaign.

For campaign teams, this demonstrates their willingness to embrace new technology and adapt to changing times, which is a significant attraction for young voters and tech enthusiasts. Additionally, as more people recognize the legitimacy and importance of cryptocurrencies, market demand will likely increase, driving up their prices.

Following Trump’s conviction, Trump-related meme coins, already low in value, saw a sharp decline. TRUMP dropped 35% in the short term, and MAGA Hat (MAGA) fell from around $15 before the verdict to $11.27 shortly after, a nearly 25% decline within an hour.

Meanwhile, the Biden-related meme token Jeo Boden surged 20% in the short term. In the cryptocurrency market, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets amid political uncertainty, which includes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, potentially driving up their prices in the short term.

Potential Policy Benefits If Trump Wins the Election

• (Regulatory Relaxation): During his first term, Trump’s administration took a lenient approach to financial market regulation. If re-elected, he might continue this policy, implementing more relaxed regulations on the cryptocurrency market, which could foster market growth.
• (Tax Policies): Trump could advocate for investor-friendly tax policies, including reducing taxes on cryptocurrency transactions, which would attract more investors to the market.

This presents an opportunity for the cryptocurrency market. In addition to the potential benefits from Trump’s campaign policies, increasing numbers of celebrities and entrepreneurs, like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have publicly shown support for Bitcoin, further driving its price up.

Additionally, governments around the world are gradually shifting their attitudes towards Bitcoin: some countries are starting to integrate Bitcoin into their legal financial systems and are even considering the issuance of national digital currencies.

Impact on the Stock Market

U.S. financial experts have warned that former President Trump’s historic conviction for falsifying documents is likely to increase volatility in the stock market. However, this might not necessarily be bad news for investors:

“Any market sell-off related to geopolitical or domestic political crises could actually be a buying opportunity. The market’s primary focus will remain on the economy. If politics impact the economy, then it will inevitably affect the stock market.”

Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research suggests that this is a buying opportunity for investors.

Investors may have noticed a slight rise in the stock market last Friday, indicating that the Trump verdict might not be seen as critical, but this calm may be temporary.

Historically, the stock market has performed better under Democratic presidents. The S&P 500 index averages an 11.5% rise under Democrats compared to a 7.1% rise under Republicans.

The policy benefits for the market vary between the two parties based on their campaign promises:

If Biden wins in November, it could result in further investment in clean energy and manufacturing, expanded Medicare coverage, and lower prescription drug costs.

If Trump wins, potential policies could include extending the 2017 tax cuts, promising to “unleash domestic energy production potential,” and imposing a 10% tariff on most imported goods. Changes in tariff policy could raise market concerns and increase inflation.

Following the conviction announcement, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares dropped more than 6% in after-hours trading.